San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani doubled to center, Edman scored.4–2
- 8Betts scored on a balk, Freeman to second.4–1
- 8Betts scored on a balk, Freeman to second on a balk.4–1
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to right, Song scored, Salas to third.4–0
- 7Salas singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Song to second.3–0
- 7Hays reached on infield single to shortstop, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.2–0
- 6Harris hit sacrifice fly to center, Salas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML SD +144 / LAD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.5%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -155
- SD +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 4.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +53 Elo | LAD 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3038–40 | Road vs home | 51–294th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15682nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–77 | 72–86 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–51 | 64–83 |
| Underdog | 49–26 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 72–80–6 | 71–82–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 22–34 LAD in their last 56 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 56.