Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack DreyerPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Scott BanduraBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Braxton RoxbyPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Pages homered to left (399 feet), Call scored and Muncy scored.5–1
- 10Call doubled to left, Rojas scored.2–1
- 4Pages hit sacrifice fly to right, Tucker scored, Muncy to third.1–1
- 2Bandura singled to center, Whitcomb scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML LAD -249 / SF +201
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.1%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -215
- SF +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +2 | LAD: Jack Dreyer: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Seymour: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +64 Elo | LAD 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3048–32 | Road vs home | 37–4326th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301568 | Elo rating | 146726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–88 | 81–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 65–85 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 61–50 |
| Overs–unders | 71–84–6 | 75–72–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 33–18 SF in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.