Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting0-4, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Baldwin grounded out to first, Dubón scored, Hicklen to second, Thomas to third.3–1
- 4Freeman homered to right center (399 feet).3–0
- 4E. Hernández homered to left (406 feet), Pages scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / ATL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.3 – 3.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +20 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +11 Elo | LAD 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3049–32 | Road vs home | 52–293rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301570 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–89 | 91–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 67–86 | 52–58 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 71–87–6 | 76–81–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 15–13 ATL in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.
- Oct 4ATL 3 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 65%Miss
- Oct 3ATL 3 @ LAD 5PlayoffsPicked LAD 65%Hit
- Aug 27LAD 0 @ ATL 1Picked ATL 53%Hit
- Aug 26LAD 5 @ ATL 6Picked LAD 54%Miss
- Aug 25LAD 3 @ ATL 4Picked LAD 59%Miss
- May 10ATL 7 @ LAD 2Picked LAD 56%Miss
- May 9ATL 7 @ LAD 2Picked LAD 62%Miss
- May 8ATL 1 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 50%Hit