Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lara singled to center, Mitchell scored.1–2
- 4Turang homered to left center (384 feet).1–1
- 2Pages singled to right, Ohtani scored, T. Hernández to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML LAD -101 / MIL -111
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -105
- LAD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 2.9 – 3.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +13 | LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3049–32 | Road vs home | 55–251st of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301574 | Elo rating | 15831st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–89 | 88–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 68–86 | 60–66 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 28–12 |
| Overs–unders | 71–89–6 | 73–86–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–9–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 16–14 MIL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.