San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Dustin HarrisBatting2-4
- Robbie RayPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras homered to center (406 feet).2–3
- 3Chourio homered to left center (420 feet), Mitchell scored.2–2
- 2Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to first, Salas scored, Campusano to second.2–0
- 2Campusano singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Salas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 65%
- ML SD +177 / MIL -217
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.4%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -190
- SD +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 2.8 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +14 | SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +66 Elo | MIL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 55–251st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 15811st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–78 | 86–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 60–64 |
| Underdog | 51–26 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 76–82–6 | 73–83–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–12 MIL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 26.