Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Matthew BoydPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly.0–8
- 7Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly.0–8
- 5France scored on a passed ball by Kelly, Merrill to second on passed ball by Kelly.0–7
- 5France scored on a passed ball by Kelly, Merrill to second on passed ball by Kelly.0–7
- 5Merrill singled to right, Campusano scored and Machado scored, France to third.0–6
- 4Bogaerts homered to left (399 feet).0–4
- 3Machado doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Machado homered to left center (391 feet).0–2
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to center (405 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML CHC +108 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SD: Elo 51.0%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 51–304th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–83 | 84–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–66 | 33–52 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 88–65–9 | 75–81–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 16–12 SD in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 28.