Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wong doubled to left, Anthony scored.3–4
- 5Rutschman singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored and Anthony scored.3–3
- 3Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to second, Anthony scored on throwing error by shortstop Swanson, Rutschman out at second.3–1
- 2Amaya doubled to left, Swanson scored and Busch scored.3–0
- 1Taylor doubled to left, Suzuki scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -123 / BOS +102
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.7%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- BOS +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −10 | CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Alec Gamboa: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +5 Elo | CHC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3042–36 | Road vs home | 39–3920th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 15347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–81 | 77–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 43–65 | 43–61 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 86–64–9 | 70–85–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–5 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.