Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Nick SogardBatting1-4
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Martínez homered to right (319 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML CLE +106 / BOS -127
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.1%, market 53.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | CLE: Daniel Espino: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +43 Elo | BOS 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3041–36 | Road vs home | 39–3819th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 12th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–81 | 77–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–59 | 43–60 |
| Underdog | 46–22 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 75–81–2 | 70–84–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–12 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.