Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ramírez homered to right (401 feet).3–5
- 5Bazzana homered to center (411 feet).3–4
- 4Ramírez singled to center, Rocchio scored.3–3
- 4Rocchio doubled to right, Halpin scored and Bailey scored.3–2
- 1Gelof homered to center (393 feet), Bolte scored and Butler scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 68%
- ML ATH +199 / CLE -246
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.3%, market 68.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -213
- ATH +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.2 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −3 | ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Daniel Espino: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +88 Elo | CLE 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–46 | Road vs home | 38–4021st of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 29th of 301432 | Elo rating | 150114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–79 | 73–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 29–58 |
| Underdog | 63–51 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 78–69–6 | 74–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–17 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.