Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fry homered to left (410 feet), Adell scored.7–3
- 9Benintendi singled to right, Vargas scored, Murakami thrown out at third.7–1
- 6Bailey scored on fielding error by shortstop C. Montgomery, Ramírez safe at first.6–1
- 6Vargas homered to left (392 feet), Teel scored.6–0
- 6Teel doubled to left, C. Montgomery scored and Meidroth scored, Grichuk thrown out at home.4–0
- 6Meidroth singled to left, Peters scored, C. Montgomery to second.2–0
- 6C. Montgomery grounded into fielder's choice to first, Benintendi scored on throwing error by first baseman Lowe, Peters safe at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 62%
- ML CHW +152 / CLE -184
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.4%, market 62.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -163
- CHW +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | CHW: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +38 Elo | CLE 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–42 | Road vs home | 36–3922nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 150114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–71 | 72–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–31 | 28–56 |
| Underdog | 63–40 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 83–64–2 | 71–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 21–28 CLE in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 49.