Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio doubled to left, Fry scored and Schneemann scored.6–7
- 6Bazzana homered to center (393 feet).6–5
- 6Vargas singled to left, Peters scored and Meidroth scored, Vargas to second.6–4
- 6Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to left, Teel scored, Meidroth to second, Peters to third.4–4
- 6Meidroth singled to left, Antonacci scored, Peters to second, Teel to third.3–4
- 5Rocchio scored on pickoff error by pitcher Martin.2–4
- 5Rocchio scored on pickoff error by pitcher Martin.2–4
- 5Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Peters scored.2–3
- 4Antonacci singled to left, Doyle scored.1–3
- 1Bazzana homered to right center (365 feet).0–3
- 1Adell homered to center (442 feet), Kwan scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML CHW +132 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -143
- CHW +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −11 | CHW: Chris Murphy: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–42 | Road vs home | 36–4025th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–71 | 72–79 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–31 | 28–57 |
| Underdog | 64–40 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 84–64–2 | 72–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 22–28 CLE in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 50.