Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Petey HalpinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ramírez doubled to left, Rocchio scored, Kwan to third.3–6
- 6Halpin homered to right center (393 feet), Fry scored and Hedges scored.3–5
- 5Pham homered to left center (412 feet), Meidroth scored and Grichuk scored.3–2
- 3Adell singled to left, Halpin scored and Kwan scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 60%
- ML CHW +137 / CLE -166
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.6%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -148
- CHW +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–43 | Road vs home | 37–4021st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–71 | 72–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–31 | 28–58 |
| Underdog | 65–40 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 85–64–2 | 73–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 22–29 CLE in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 51.