Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4
- Jack PerkinsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Adell reached on infield single to pitcher, Ramírez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 69%
- ML ATH +213 / CLE -265
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.7%, market 69.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -227
- ATH +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.6 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +90 Elo | CLE 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 69.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.226th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–48 | Road vs home | 40–4020th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 29th of 301429 | Elo rating | 150413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–81 | 75–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 31–58 |
| Underdog | 63–53 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 79–69–7 | 75–78–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–19 CLE in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.