Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Donovan WaltonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching2.2 IP, 10 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Martínez singled to center, Ramírez scored.6–12
- 5Walton homered to right center (387 feet), Gelof scored.6–11
- 4Martínez homered to right (353 feet).4–11
- 4Bolte singled to center, Williams scored.4–10
- 3Kwan singled to left, Rocchio scored.3–10
- 3Rocchio doubled to left, Hedges scored.3–9
- 3Hedges doubled to left, Fry scored.3–8
- 3Fry doubled to left, DeLauter scored and Martínez scored.3–7
- 3Walton singled to left, Butler scored.3–5
- 1Martínez homered to center (402 feet), Adell scored.2–5
- 1DeLauter homered to center (394 feet), Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.2–3
- 1Walton singled to right, Butler scored, Gelof to third.2–0
- 1Gelof singled to left, Langeliers scored on error, Butler to second, Butler safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Martínez.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 62%
- ML ATH +154 / CLE -188
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.9%, market 62.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -166
- ATH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.2 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +77 Elo | CLE 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 62.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–47 | Road vs home | 39–4020th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 29th of 301431 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–80 | 74–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 30–58 |
| Underdog | 63–52 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 78–69–7 | 74–78–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–18 CLE in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.