Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting3-4
- Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Mickey GasperBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, DeLauter scored.3–2
- 8Gasper homered to right (390 feet).2–2
- 2Monasterio grounded out to shortstop, Rutschman scored.2–1
- 2Rocchio grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Fry scored, Hedges out at second, Bazzana to third.2–0
- 2Fry singled to center, Martínez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML CLE +102 / BOS -123
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.8%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 2.9 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +10 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +48 Elo | BOS 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–35 | Road vs home | 38–3719th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–81 | 77–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–59 | 43–58 |
| Underdog | 44–22 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 75–79–2 | 70–82–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–11 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.