Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lars NootbaarBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays singled to center, Harris scored and France scored.4–9
- 7Fermin singled to left, Campusano scored and Hays scored, Cronenworth to second.4–7
- 7Cronenworth walked, France scored, Hays to second, Campusano to third. Arizona Diamondbacks challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–5
- 7Nootbaar singled to center, Tawa scored, Lawlar to third.4–4
- 7Tawa singled to center, Carroll scored.3–4
- 7Carroll doubled to center, Arenado scored.2–4
- 6Fermin doubled to left, Hays scored, Cronenworth to third.1–4
- 6Marte singled to right, Lawlar scored.1–3
- 5France singled to left, Harris scored, Taylor to second.0–3
- 4Sheets homered to center (423 feet).0–2
- 3Machado singled to left, Song scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML ARI -156 / SD +129
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 43.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 50–305th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–74 | 83–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 33–52 |
| Underdog | 58–30 | 50–26 |
| Overs–unders | 68–85–8 | 74–81–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 24–27 SD in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 51.