Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach AgnosPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arenado homered to left (421 feet).7–2
- 5Tawa hit sacrifice fly to center, Lawlar scored.6–2
- 4Moreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored.5–2
- 3Norby hit sacrifice fly to right, Johnston scored.4–2
- 3Moniak homered to right center (431 feet).4–1
- 3Tawa hit a ground rule double, Arenado scored.4–0
- 1Carroll doubled to left, Perdomo scored, Arenado to third.3–0
- 1Perdomo singled to center, Moreno scored.2–0
- 1Moreno doubled to center, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML ARI -181 / COL +149
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -160
- COL +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.0 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +81 Elo | ARI 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 13th of 3037–38 | Road vs home | 32–4629th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 140330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–73 | 81–75 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–44 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 57–29 | 76–70 |
| Overs–unders | 65–83–8 | 74–75–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 33–16 COL in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 49.