Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carrigg singled to center, Norby scored and Rumfield scored, Goodman to third.3–5
- 7Rumfield singled to center, Amador scored, Norby to third.3–3
- 7McCarthy grounded out to pitcher, Veen scored, Amador to second.3–2
- 3Norby flied out to right, McCarthy scored on throwing error by right fielder Canzone.3–1
- 3Arozarena homered to left center (435 feet).3–0
- 1Raleigh homered to left center (459 feet), Canzone scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -149 / COL +123
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −41 | +7 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 2.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–47 | Road vs home | 31–4529th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 140230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–93 | 79–75 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–70 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 74–70 |
| Overs–unders | 80–65–9 | 74–73–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–1 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.