Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Montes homered to right (426 feet).5–4
- 7Canzone hit sacrifice fly to center, Arroyo scored.4–4
- 6Norby singled to center, McCarthy scored.3–4
- 6McCarthy tripled to center, Tovar scored.3–3
- 4McCarthy singled to right, Tovar scored.3–2
- 1Carrigg singled to right, Norby scored, Goodman to second.3–1
- 1Naylor singled to right, Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.3–0
- 1Crawford homered to right (421 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML SEA -191 / COL +157
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.7%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -169
- COL +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −3 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +83 Elo | SEA 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 26th of 3031–47 | Road vs home | 31–4429th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 140330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–92 | 78–75 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 36–69 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 73–70 |
| Overs–unders | 80–64–9 | 74–72–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–1–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–1 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.