Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kade AndersonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 6Canzone doubled to right, Crawford scored.2–0
- 4Canzone singled to center, Arozarena scored, Canzone to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML SEA -163 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -146
- COL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +4 | SEA: Kade Anderson: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +66 Elo | SEA 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–48 | Road vs home | 32–4529th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–94 | 80–75 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–71 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 25–23 | 75–70 |
| Overs–unders | 80–66–9 | 74–74–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–2 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.