Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason AdamsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tovar homered to right (386 feet).5–3
- 8Tawa homered to left (368 feet).5–2
- 3Goodman hit sacrifice fly to left, Tovar scored.4–2
- 2Amador doubled to right, Karros scored.4–1
- 1Carroll tripled to right, Smith scored and Arenado scored.4–0
- 1Arenado singled to left, Moreno scored, Smith to second.2–0
- 1Moreno singled to left, Marte scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML ARI -168 / COL +139
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Mason Adams: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +87 Elo | ARI 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 32–4729th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 140130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–73 | 81–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–44 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 57–29 | 76–71 |
| Overs–unders | 65–84–8 | 74–76–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 34–16 COL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.