Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonathan LoaisigaPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado singled to center, Marte scored, Carroll to third.7–10
- 9Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to second, Nootbaar scored, Perdomo out at second, Marte to third.6–10
- 9Perdomo walked, Tawa scored, Marte to second, Nootbaar to third.5–10
- 6Cronenworth singled to center, France scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to third.4–10
- 5Tatis Jr. grounded out to second, Cronenworth scored, Salas to second.4–8
- 5Bogaerts homered to left (380 feet).4–7
- 4Machado homered to right (351 feet), Salas scored and Tatis Jr. scored.4–6
- 4McCann homered to center (412 feet), Smith scored.4–3
- 3Sheets doubled to shortstop, Merrill scored.2–3
- 3France grounded out to first, Harris scored, Merrill to third.2–2
- 3Moreno singled to right, Tawa scored.2–1
- 2Perdomo scored, Carroll to second on pickoff error by catcher Salas.1–1
- 2Perdomo scored on pickoff error by catcher Salas, Carroll picked off second.1–1
- 1Merrill singled to center, Harris scored, Machado to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML ARI +104 / SD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- SD: Elo 53.9%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -113
- ARI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | ARI: Taylor Clarke: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3041–38 | Road vs home | 49–305th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–73 | 82–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 32–52 |
| Underdog | 58–29 | 50–26 |
| Overs–unders | 67–85–8 | 73–81–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 24–26 SD in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 50.