Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Padres- Sung-Mun SongBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Song singled to center, Harris scored, France to third.11–4
- 7Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Song scored, Campusano out at second.11–3
- 7Lawlar grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Arenado scored, Fernandez out at second, Tawa to third.11–2
- 6Perdomo doubled to center, Moreno scored, Nootbaar scored and Marte scored.10–2
- 4Moreno singled to right, Nootbaar scored.7–2
- 3Arenado homered to left (385 feet), Perdomo scored.6–2
- 2Cronenworth singled to center, Bogaerts scored.4–2
- 2Campusano grounded out to second, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.4–1
- 2Lawlar homered to right (334 feet).4–0
- 1Carroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored.3–0
- 1Perdomo tripled to right, Moreno scored.2–0
- 1Nootbaar homered to right center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −11 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 9th of 3040–38 | Road vs home | 49–295th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–73 | 82–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–44 | 32–51 |
| Underdog | 57–29 | 50–26 |
| Overs–unders | 66–85–8 | 72–81–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 23–26 SD in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 49.