Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching3.1 IP, 10 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rumfield doubled to right, Amador scored.12–8
- 8Veen homered to right center (397 feet).12–7
- 7Carrigg homered to right center (404 feet), Goodman scored and Rumfield scored.12–6
- 7Goodman singled to center, Veen scored.12–3
- 6Karros homered to left center (397 feet).12–2
- 6McCann homered to left (401 feet).12–1
- 5Arenado singled to center, Perdomo scored, Smith to third.11–1
- 4Sullivan grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rumfield scored, Karros out at second, Carrigg to third.10–1
- 4McCann singled to left, Smith scored, Carroll to third.10–0
- 4Smith doubled to left, Perdomo scored.9–0
- 2Perdomo singled to center, Marte scored.8–0
- 2Marte doubled to center, Nootbaar scored.7–0
- 1Arenado homered to left center (419 feet), Smith scored.6–0
- 1Smith singled to left, Perdomo scored.4–0
- 1Moreno homered to left (416 feet), Nootbaar scored and Marte scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 63%
- ML ARI -196 / COL +161
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 66.4%, market 63.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -173
- COL +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.6 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −23 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +118 Elo | ARI 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 10th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 32–4830th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 10th of 301511 | Elo rating | 140030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–73 | 81–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–44 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 57–29 | 76–72 |
| Overs–unders | 65–85–8 | 74–77–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 35–16 COL in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.