Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Adley RutschmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conforto doubled to right, Bregman scored.6–2
- 9Arias hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.5–2
- 9Bregman doubled to center, Amaya scored, Taylor to third.4–2
- 3Bregman homered to left (402 feet).3–2
- 2Monasterio grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Sogard scored, Story out at second, Durbin to third.2–2
- 1Rutschman homered to left (402 feet).2–1
- 1Bregman homered to left center (417 feet), Taylor scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -120 / BOS -101
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.1%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −28 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 1.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +36 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 79–82 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–66 | 44–61 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 35–21 |
| Overs–unders | 87–65–9 | 71–86–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–7 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.