Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Sheets homered to right (394 feet), Bogaerts scored.1–4
- 4Hoerner singled to center, Suzuki scored, Happ to second.1–2
- 2Salas hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrill scored.0–2
- 2Bogaerts singled to right, France scored, Merrill to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML CHC +123 / SD -149
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SD: Elo 54.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -133
- CHC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.2 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +32 Elo | SD 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 51–304th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–84 | 85–78 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–66 | 34–52 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 89–65–9 | 76–81–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 16–13 SD in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 29.