St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn MathewsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Turang homered to center (421 feet), Chourio scored.2–3
- 3Chourio singled to right, Lockridge scored.2–1
- 3Burleson homered to right center (432 feet).2–0
- 2Saggese singled to left, Walker scored, Gorman to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML STL +134 / MIL -163
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.8%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- STL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −6 | STL: Quinn Mathews: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +91 Elo | MIL 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 53–251st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 21st of 301483 | Elo rating | 15791st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–74 | 85–75 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–43 | 59–63 |
| Underdog | 68–31 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 73–79–8 | 72–82–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 18–32 MIL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 50.