St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cooper HjerpePitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4
- Paul SkenesPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to center, Simon scored.1–2
- 1Lowe singled to left, Cruz scored.1–1
- 1Burleson homered to right center (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML STL +138 / PIT -167
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.5%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 43–3713th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 21st of 301485 | Elo rating | 150214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–73 | 72–86 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–43 | 29–54 |
| Underdog | 67–30 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders | 72–78–8 | 80–71–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 25–26 PIT in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 51.