Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Konnor GriffinBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Griffin reached on infield single to shortstop, Horwitz scored, Davis to second.5–8
- 7Horwitz singled to left, Cruz scored and Gonzales scored.5–7
- 5O'Hearn grounded into fielder's choice to third, Cruz scored, Gonzales out at second.5–5
- 4Griffin grounded out to shortstop, Horwitz scored.5–4
- 4Davis doubled to right, Simon scored, Horwitz to third.5–3
- 4Massey homered to right (371 feet).5–2
- 3Lowe homered to center (417 feet), Griffin scored.4–2
- 3Garcia doubled to right, Pasquantino scored and Witt Jr. scored, Garcia out stretching at third.4–0
- 3Pasquantino singled to right, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to second.2–0
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 63%
- ML KC +158 / PIT -193
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -170
- KC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −5 | KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +21 Elo | PIT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–50 | Road vs home | 39–3614th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301477 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–74 | 70–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 27–51 |
| Underdog | 57–41 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders | 66–81–6 | 78–68–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–4 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.