St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Khristian CurtisPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Wetherholt singled to right, Winn scored.5–1
- 4Winn doubled to center, Fermín scored.4–1
- 3Bernal singled to right, Burleson scored.3–1
- 3Herrera scored on Curtis wild pitch, Burleson to second on wild pitch by Curtis.2–1
- 3Herrera scored on Curtis wild pitch, Burleson to second on wild pitch by Curtis.2–1
- 3Burleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.1–1
- 2Lowe homered to right center (434 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML STL +114 / PIT -138
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 59.7%, market 55.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +13 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +68 Elo | PIT 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 43–3613th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301482 | Elo rating | 150514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–73 | 72–85 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–43 | 29–53 |
| Underdog | 66–30 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders | 72–77–8 | 80–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 24–26 PIT in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 50.