Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe homered to right center (401 feet), Triolo scored.5–6
- 7Loftin singled to center, Caglianone scored, Pasquantino to third.5–4
- 7Caglianone singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.4–4
- 5Massey hit sacrifice bunt to first, Caglianone scored.3–4
- 5Pasquantino grounded out to first, Witt Jr. scored, Caglianone to third.2–4
- 4Mangum homered to left (397 feet), Gonzales scored.1–4
- 3Jensen homered to right center (375 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.1–2
- 2Simon homered to left (393 feet), Lowe scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML KC -101 / PIT -119
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.6%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -108
- KC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +53 Elo | PIT 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–51 | Road vs home | 40–3614th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Elo rating | 150114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–75 | 71–83 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 28–51 |
| Underdog | 57–42 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders | 67–81–6 | 79–68–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–5 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.