Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Leo BernalBatting3-4
- Cooper HjerpePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Herrera grounded out to third, Church scored.9–1
- 6Wood doubled to right, Young scored.9–0
- 4Lile hit sacrifice fly to left, Young scored.8–0
- 3Morales doubled to left, House scored and Vivas scored.7–0
- 3Crews homered to right (379 feet), Lile scored.5–0
- 1House grounded out to shortstop, Abrams scored.3–0
- 1Crews scored on throwing error by catcher Bernal, Abrams stole third.2–0
- 1Crews scored on throwing error by catcher Bernal, Abrams stole third.2–0
- 1Abrams singled to right, Lile scored, Crews to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML WSH -112 / STL -107
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.1%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- STL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +34 Elo | STL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–41 | Road vs home | 37–4124th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–68 | 83–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 17–41 |
| Underdog | 64–47 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 80–64–9 | 70–75–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–15 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.