Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn MathewsPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bernal homered to center (424 feet), Walker scored.3–5
- 8Herrera homered to left center (439 feet).3–3
- 6Abrams homered to right (397 feet), House scored.3–2
- 3Wetherholt singled to right, Fermín scored.1–2
- 2Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Lile scored, Ford to second.1–1
- 1Herrera homered to left (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML WSH +108 / STL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- STL: Elo 56.3%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Quinn Mathews: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 37–4326th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Elo rating | 148222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–68 | 83–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 17–43 |
| Underdog | 66–47 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 82–64–9 | 72–75–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–15 STL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.