Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Wetherholt singled to center, Church scored.8–5
- 11Crews hit sacrifice fly to right, Young scored.8–4
- 11Tena doubled to left, Ford scored and Nuñez scored, Young to third.7–4
- 11Young reached first base on catcher's interference, Morales scored on error, Nuñez safe at second on error, Ford safe at third on error. Washington Nationals challenged: call on the field was overturn5–4
- 10Winn singled to right, Bernal scored, Winn out stretching at second.4–4
- 10Vivas singled to left, Tena scored, Vivas to second.4–3
- 9Pagés singled to left, Church scored.3–3
- 7Fermín singled to center, Pagés scored.3–2
- 7Pagés reached on infield single to pitcher, Winn scored on throwing error by pitcher Lovelady, Pagés to second.3–1
- 6Nuñez reached on infield single to shortstop, Vivas scored, Ruiz to second.3–0
- 1Lile homered to center (404 feet), Wood scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML WSH -104 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- STL: Elo 52.7%, market 51.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- WSH +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −8 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +19 Elo | STL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 3035–41 | Road vs home | 37–4225th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–68 | 83–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–21 | 17–42 |
| Underdog | 65–47 | 66–29 |
| Overs–unders | 81–64–9 | 71–75–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–15 STL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.