Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Rafael Flores Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Flores Jr. homered to left (426 feet), Simon scored.3–4
- 7Pasquantino homered to right center (390 feet), Rave scored.3–2
- 6Horwitz singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Flores Jr. to second.1–2
- 4Cruz homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 1Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Caglianone to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML KC +101 / PIT -122
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.7%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- PIT -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +14 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Lake Bachar: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +47 Elo | PIT 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–52 | Road vs home | 41–3614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 150214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–75 | 71–84 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–33 | 28–52 |
| Underdog | 58–42 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders | 68–81–6 | 80–68–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–6 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.