St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting1-3
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Konnor GriffinBatting2-4
- Jared JonesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Horwitz scored on Winquest wild pitch, Griffin out at third on runner's fielder's choice.0–2
- 7Horwitz scored on Winquest wild pitch, Griffin out at third on runner's fielder's choice.0–2
- 7Horwitz scored on Winquest wild pitch, Griffin out at third on runner's fielder's choice.0–2
- 7Horwitz scored on Winquest wild pitch, Griffin out at third on runner's fielder's choice.0–2
- 6O'Hearn singled to left, Cruz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML STL +140 / PIT -169
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.9%, market 60.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -151
- STL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +41 Elo | PIT 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 42–3613th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 150314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–72 | 71–85 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–43 | 28–53 |
| Underdog | 66–29 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders | 72–76–8 | 80–69–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 24–25 PIT in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 49.