Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yelich singled to center, Contreras scored, Turang to second.3–4
- 6Bogaerts scored on error, Andujar safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Pratt.2–4
- 5Cronenworth homered to right (368 feet).2–3
- 5Chourio hit sacrifice fly to left, Pratt scored.2–2
- 4Contreras homered to left (365 feet).1–2
- 3Machado singled to left, Merrill scored.0–2
- 3Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Taylor scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML MIL +119 / SD -144
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- SD: Elo 49.2%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -129
- MIL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +6 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3048–33 | Road vs home | 51–304th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301582 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–78 | 88–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 60–66 | 35–52 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 53–26 |
| Overs–unders | 73–84–7 | 76–83–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 14–14 SD in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.