San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chourio singled to center, Frelick scored and Yelich scored, Ortiz to second.3–4
- 7Hamilton reaches on fielding error by second baseman Cronenworth. Mitchell scored, Pratt to third, Hamilton to second on throwing error by second baseman Cronenworth.3–2
- 7France singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado thrown out at third.3–1
- 5Frelick singled to left, Yelich scored.2–1
- 5Harris grounded into fielder's choice to second. Campusano scored, Harris safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Pratt. Tatis Jr. out at second.2–0
- 1France singled to center, Machado scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML SD +113 / MIL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- SD +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 3.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +65 Elo | MIL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 55–251st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 15811st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–78 | 86–77 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 60–65 |
| Underdog | 52–26 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 76–83–6 | 73–84–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 14–13 MIL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.