Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Frelick hit sacrifice fly to left, Bauers scored.3–1
- 5Chourio singled to center, Mitchell scored.2–1
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to center (429 feet).1–1
- 3Mitchell singled to center, Frelick scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML MIL -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SD: Elo 45.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3048–33 | Road vs home | 51–304th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301581 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–78 | 88–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 60–66 | 35–53 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 53–26 |
| Overs–unders | 73–85–7 | 76–84–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 14–15 SD in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.
- Oct 6MIL 3 @ SD 4PlayoffsPicked SD 56%Hit
- Oct 4SD 3 @ MIL 4PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Hit
- Oct 3SD 2 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 65%Hit
- Aug 12MIL 3 @ SD 4Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Aug 11MIL 2 @ SD 11Picked MIL 55%Miss
- Aug 10MIL 2 @ SD 3Picked MIL 54%Miss
- May 14SD 1 @ MIL 7Picked MIL 56%Hit
- May 13SD 3 @ MIL 1Picked MIL 60%Miss