Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bauers singled to center, Turang scored, Contreras to second, Contreras safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Pages.4–7
- 8Turang singled to right, Hamilton scored.4–6
- 6Contreras singled to left, Hamilton scored, Turang to second.4–5
- 5Contreras homered to center (436 feet).4–4
- 5Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored. Milwaukee Brewers challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–3
- 5Edman hit sacrifice bunt, Tucker scored, Edman to second on throwing error by pitcher Henderson.3–3
- 3Yelich singled to center, Hamilton scored and Turang scored, Bauers to second.2–3
- 3Edman scored on pickoff error by pitcher Henderson, Betts picked off second.2–1
- 3Edman scored on pickoff error by pitcher Henderson, Betts picked off second.2–1
- 1Contreras singled to left, Turang scored.1–1
- 1T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -130 / MIL +116
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 46.0%, market 55.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -122
- MIL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.5 – 3.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3049–32 | Road vs home | 55–251st of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301573 | Elo rating | 15841st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–89 | 88–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 68–86 | 60–67 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 28–12 |
| Overs–unders | 71–90–6 | 73–87–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–9–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 16–15 MIL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.