Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Liam HicksBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pratt singled to right, Turang scored.4–5
- 6Frelick homered to center (408 feet).4–4
- 4Pratt scored on error, Hamilton safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Aranda, Frelick to second.4–3
- 1Mitchell singled to right, Bauers scored, Contreras to third.4–2
- 1Contreras singled to center, Chourio scored, Bauers to third.4–1
- 1Hicks homered to right center (411 feet), Caminero scored.4–0
- 1Caminero singled to left, Simpson scored.2–0
- 1Simpson singled to center, Díaz scored.1–0
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML TB +100 / MIL -121
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.7%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- TB +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +7 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +61 Elo | MIL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 55–251st of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15901st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 96–76 | 91–80 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 55–49 | 60–68 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 31–12 |
| Overs–unders | 79–87–6 | 76–88–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–7 MIL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.