Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast

FinalTB wins series 4-2

Away

Guardians

85-77

3–7

at

Home

Rays

98-64

CLE 42%TB 58%

You didn't pick this one.

Tropicana Field · TBS, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.

TB75%50%75%CLEStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Guardians
  • Nathaniel LoweBatting2-3, 1 RBI
  • Joey CantilloPitching1.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Rays
  • Junior CamineroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Díaz homered to left (416 feet), Walls scored.3–7
  • 8Martínez hit by pitch, Lowe scored, Bailey to second, Bazzana to third.3–5
  • 8Bailey walked, DeLauter scored, Bazzana to second, Lowe to third.2–5
  • 7Caminero homered to left (346 feet), Hicks scored.1–5
  • 6Lowe singled to center, DeLauter scored.1–3
  • 3DeLuca hit sacrifice fly to left, Caminero scored.0–3
  • 2Palacios doubled to right, Mesa Jr. scored and Simpson scored.0–2

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Rays 58%

LeanHit
CLE 42%TB 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
TB 58%
ML CLE +130 / TB -158
Pre-line forecast
TB 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 58%
Ratings vs. market
−0.1 pts
TB: Elo 58.4%, market 58.5%
Fair odds
TB -141
CLE +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 3.1 – 3.9 TB
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLETBWhy
Team rating15131543Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−6+5CLE: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +59 EloTB 58.4%
Market-implied ratingsTB 58.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 58.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTB 58.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatTB
24th of 304.2Runs scored4.512th of 30
8th of 304.1Runs allowed4.06th of 30
13th of 30+0.1Margin+0.56th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 105–512th of 30
6th of 3044–37Road vs home55–262nd of 30
26th of 301495Opponent Elo150015th of 30
10th of 301513Elo rating15434th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

GuardiansRays
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLETB
Run line85–8794–76
Last 104–67–3
Favorite33–6354–49
Underdog52–2440–27
Overs–unders82–88–278–86–6
Overs–unders, last 105–55–4–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 14–17 TB in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 31.