Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast

FinalTB leads series 3-2

Away

Rays

98-64

3–1

at

Home

Guardians

85-77

TB 55%CLE 45%

You didn't pick this one.

Progressive Field · TBS, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.

CLE75%50%75%TBStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rays
  • Yandy DiazBatting3-5
  • Drew RasmussenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Guardians
  • Steven KwanBatting2-4
  • Parker MessickPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 6DeLauter grounded out to first, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second.3–1
  • 3Hicks singled to center, Simpson scored.3–0
  • 2Aranda singled to left, Williamson scored, Díaz to second.2–0
  • 1DeLuca walked, Díaz scored, Simpson to second, Vilade to third. Cleveland Guardians challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–0

The pick

Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.

Rays 55%

Toss-upHit
TB 55%CLE 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TB 55%
ML TB -135 / CLE +112
Pre-line forecast
TB 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 52%
Ratings vs. market
−3.2 pts
TB: Elo 51.7%, market 54.9%
Fair odds
TB -122
CLE +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TB 3.5 – 3.0 CLE
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTBCLEWhy
Team rating15421514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+9+7TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +12 EloTB 51.7%
Market-implied ratingsTB 51.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 51.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTB 54.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians compared, with each team's league rank
TBStatCLE
12th of 304.5Runs scored4.224th of 30
6th of 304.0Runs allowed4.18th of 30
6th of 30+0.5Margin+0.113th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 108–21st of 30
7th of 3043–38Road vs home41–4019th of 30
15th of 301500Opponent Elo149527th of 30
4th of 301542Elo rating151410th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RaysGuardians
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTBCLE
Run line93–7685–86
Last 107–35–5
Favorite53–4933–63
Underdog40–2752–23
Overs–unders78–85–682–87–2
Overs–unders, last 105–4–15–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TB 16–14 CLE in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 30.