Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Volpe doubled, Lombard Jr. scored. Umpire review: HR call on the field was overturned due to fan interference.4–3
- 6Mesa Jr. homered to right center (401 feet), Caminero scored.4–2
- 4Jones doubled to left, Volpe scored, Jones to third.2–2
- 4Vilade homered to right (340 feet).2–1
- 3Rice singled to right, Jones scored.1–1
- 3Aranda singled to right, DeLuca scored, Walls thrown out at home.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML TB +144 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.8%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -155
- TB +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +33 Elo | NYY 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 46–348th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 5th of 301541 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 89–75 | 92–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 52–48 | 64–63 |
| Underdog | 37–27 | 28–10 |
| Overs–unders | 76–83–5 | 78–81–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 27–27 NYY in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 54.