Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taveras doubled to right, Alonso scored, Mayo to third.3–6
- 9Beavers homered to right (368 feet).2–6
- 7García Jr. singled to center, Rice scored, Ramos to third.1–6
- 7Ramos singled to center, McMahon scored, Rice to third.1–5
- 7Taveras hit sacrifice fly to left, Alonso scored.1–4
- 6Volpe hit a ground rule double, García Jr. scored and Jones scored.0–4
- 6Jones singled to right, Ramos scored, García Jr. to second, Jones to second, García Jr. safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Hinds.0–2
- 5McMahon doubled to center, Wells scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML BAL -102 / NYY -118
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.2 – 3.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +60 Elo | NYY 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 45–348th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–78 | 88–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–45 | 61–62 |
| Underdog | 46–33 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 78–77–5 | 74–80–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 22–28 NYY in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 50.