Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Amed RosarioBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brendan BeckPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to left, Jones scored.10–2
- 8Franklin scored on error, Henderson safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Caballero, Beavers to second.10–1
- 7Alonso homered to left center (471 feet).9–1
- 6Jackson homered to right (369 feet).8–1
- 4Rosario singled to right, Ramos scored.7–1
- 4Beavers homered to right center (379 feet), Cowser scored, Franklin scored and Narváez scored.7–0
- 4Franklin singled to right, Mayo scored, Cowser to second, Encarnacion-Strand to third.3–0
- 3Alonso homered to left (407 feet), Beavers scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -113 / NYY -106
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 43.5%, market 50.8%
- Fair odds
- BAL -103
- NYY +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 3.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −28 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Brendan Beck: team allows 1.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +46 Elo | NYY 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 45–337th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–78 | 88–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–45 | 61–61 |
| Underdog | 45–33 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 77–77–5 | 73–80–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 21–28 NYY in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 49.