Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chad DallasPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso homered to left (400 feet), Franklin scored.3–4
- 6Henderson homered to right (372 feet).3–2
- 1Alonso homered to right (363 feet).3–1
- 1Keys hit sacrifice fly to right, Lukes scored.3–0
- 1Springer singled to left, Kirk scored, Lukes to third.2–0
- 1Lukes singled to left, Bateman scored, Kirk to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML TOR -109 / BAL -111
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.4%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -101
- TOR +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +10 Elo | BAL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 36–4226th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–76 | 79–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 34–44 |
| Underdog | 48–26 | 45–33 |
| Overs–unders | 80–71–5 | 77–74–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 22–27 BAL in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 49.