Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Giménez singled to right, McAdoo scored.7–2
- 7McAdoo doubled to left, Lukes scored and Straw scored.6–2
- 7Lukes singled to right, Bateman scored, Straw to second.4–2
- 5Okamoto singled to center, Bateman scored, Straw to third.3–2
- 4Burger homered to left center (395 feet), Duran scored.2–2
- 3Keys doubled to right, Lukes scored.2–0
- 1Lukes hit sacrifice fly to left, Bateman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 61%
- ML TOR +145 / TEX -176
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.9%, market 61.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -156
- TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +6 | TOR: Spencer Miles: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 61.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–41 | Road vs home | 44–339th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 11th of 301506 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–76 | 72–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 31–53 |
| Underdog | 47–26 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 79–71–5 | 78–66–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–16 TEX in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.