Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger doubled to right, Langford scored.1–7
- 6Langford walked, Duran scored, Nimmo to second, Jung to third.1–6
- 5Burger hit sacrifice fly to left, Nimmo scored.1–5
- 5Straw doubled to left, Smith scored, Clement to third.1–4
- 2Seager doubled to right, Carter scored.0–4
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to right, Lopez scored, Carter to third.0–3
- 2Carter grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Burger scored on throwing error by shortstop Clement and Langford scored, Carter second, Lopez safe at third on error.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML TOR -141 / TEX +117
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.7%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -127
- TEX +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 3.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −3 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3036–39 | Road vs home | 42–3310th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–74 | 70–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 32–49 | 30–53 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 77–71–5 | 76–66–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–14 TEX in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.