Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-5
- Keider MonteroPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lukes reached on infield single to pitcher, Valenzuela scored, Bateman to second.1–5
- 6Valenzuela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clement scored on throwing error by shortstop Peck, Valenzuela second.1–4
- 5Springer singled to right, Bateman scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–3
- 4Straw singled to left, Smith scored.1–2
- 4Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Okamoto scored.1–1
- 1Greene singled to center, Keith scored, Greene to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML DET +109 / TOR -131
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–43 | Road vs home | 39–3819th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–76 | 78–74 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–50 | 31–49 |
| Underdog | 41–26 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 66–77–8 | 77–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 13–12 TOR in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 25.